I build deep-dive equity theses, macro context, and process-driven frameworks to understand how businesses create value and how markets price risk.
A sample of current work. Many of these live as slide decks or PDFs; this site is a hub to organize and link them over time.
Uses Blue Owl Capital to show what happens when scale outruns oversight. Walks through the four structural risks at Blue Owl, the same pattern at Ares, Apollo, and Blackstone, and four fixes the EU and Australia have begun adopting while the U.S. has not.
A thorough look into U.S. federal debt, structural unsustainability, and the rising probability of implicit default through inflation, financial repression, and dollar debasement, arguing the fiscal position can no longer be stabilized through any politically plausible adjustment, and what that means for Treasuries, the dollar, and the exorbitant privilege.
Tracks how the post-ChatGPT AI boom concentrated U.S. market returns in a narrow group of semiconductor and platform names, where a handful of stocks now drive most of the index's gains and valuations run well ahead of earnings. Covers where value actually accrues across the AI stack and which costs, including energy demand, memory shortages, and safety liabilities, remain largely unpriced.
Most projects fall into these buckets that talk to each other: company work, macro context, and process.
I start with the business and cash flows, then layer macro and sentiment on top. I care about the difference between "great companies" and "great stocks", and I use data to pressure-test stories rather than replace judgment.
This site is a living notebook. Over time I'll link more decks, notes, and code so you can see exactly how the conclusions were built.