Equity & macro projects
Decks, notes, and experiments that explore single-name stories, macro context, ETF valuation, and methods.
Deep dive on PLTR’s business model, government vs commercial mix, and bubble-like multiples versus SaaS peers. Argues current pricing bakes in very optimistic scenarios.
Benchmarks U.S. equities against a basket of global ETFs on P/E, P/B, dividend yield, and mega-cap concentration to test whether the current U.S. valuation premium is supported by fundamentals or driven by multiples.
A forward-looking examination of AI-driven equity pricing, GPU supply chains, hyperscaler capex, margin drag from model scaling, and whether today's narrative-driven multiples resemble previous tech bubbles.
Uses historical distributions to simulate thousands of portfolio paths, estimating drawdowns and upside for different index mixes across regimes.