Decks, notes, and experiments that explore single-name stories, macro context, ETF valuation, and methods.
A thorough look into U.S. federal debt, structural unsustainability, and the rising probability of implicit default through inflation, financial repression, and dollar debasement, arguing the fiscal position can no longer be stabilized through any politically plausible adjustment.
Tracks how the post-ChatGPT AI boom concentrated U.S. market returns in a narrow group of semiconductor and platform names, with valuations running well ahead of earnings. Covers where value actually accrues across the AI stack and which costs, including energy demand, memory shortages, and safety liabilities, remain largely unpriced.
Benchmarks U.S. equities against a basket of global ETFs on P/E, P/B, dividend yield, and mega-cap concentration to test whether the current U.S. valuation premium is supported by fundamentals or driven by multiples.
Deep dive on PLTR's business model, government vs commercial mix, and bubble-like multiples versus SaaS peers. Argues current pricing bakes in very optimistic scenarios.
Uses historical distributions to simulate thousands of portfolio paths, estimating drawdowns and upside for different index mixes across regimes.