Decks, notes, and experiments that explore single-name stories, macro context, ETF valuation, and methods.
Uses Blue Owl Capital to show what happens when scale outruns oversight. Walks through the four structural risks at Blue Owl, the same pattern at Ares, Apollo, and Blackstone, and four fixes the EU and Australia have begun adopting while the U.S. has not.
A thorough look into U.S. federal debt, structural unsustainability, and the rising probability of implicit default through inflation, financial repression, and dollar debasement, arguing the fiscal position can no longer be stabilized through any politically plausible adjustment, and what that means for Treasuries, the dollar, and the exorbitant privilege.
Tracks how the post-ChatGPT AI boom concentrated U.S. market returns in a narrow group of semiconductor and platform names, where a handful of stocks now drive most of the index's gains and valuations run well ahead of earnings. Covers where value actually accrues across the AI stack and which costs, including energy demand, memory shortages, and safety liabilities, remain largely unpriced.
Benchmarks U.S. equities against a basket of global ETFs on P/E, P/B, dividend yield, and mega-cap concentration to test whether the current U.S. valuation premium is supported by fundamentals or driven by multiples, and how much of the gap traces to a handful of mega-cap names.
Deep dive on PLTR's business model, the mix of government and commercial revenue, and bubble-like multiples versus SaaS peers. Argues current pricing bakes in very optimistic growth and margin assumptions, leaving little room for disappointment.