Equity & macro projects
Decks, notes, and experiments that explore single-name stories, macro context, ETF valuation, and methods.
Deep dive on PLTR’s business model, government vs commercial mix, and bubble-like multiples versus SaaS peers. Argues current pricing bakes in very optimistic scenarios.
Benchmarks U.S. equities against a basket of global ETFs on P/E, P/B, dividend yield, and mega-cap concentration to test whether the current U.S. valuation premium is supported by fundamentals or driven by multiples.
Uses historical distributions to simulate thousands of portfolio paths, estimating drawdowns and upside for different index mixes across regimes.